(derekbaker)

The Only Poll That Matters...Blah Blah

know the survey polls still look pretty good for patriots, but I think we've reached a new phase in American politics, where scientific gerrymandering, talk radio, a 24-hour news cycle, and political polarization have, together, created a new dynamic. And (similar to my post about the "two kinds of people in the world"), I think that personal identity will have as much or more to do with how these midterms turn out than perhaps in the past. Perhaps not. So perhaps a rundown of the trends helps put it all into perspective:

• Republicans like to win, Democrats like to govern. And the people who vote Republican like to win themselves, or back winners. So rather than be demoralized, potential Republican voters will use the threat of losing one (or even one-half of one) of the three branches of the federal government to psyche themselves up into turning out to vote.


• Another generalization: reality, vs. an imagined past or future. I don't quite mean what Frank Rich was talking about on Sunday. I'm saying: Democrats want to address current problems: Iraq, deficits, corruption. Republicans find more resonance in things -- and especially their spin on things -- that happened a long time ago (hippies, Chappaquidick, Carter) or in imagined outcomes (the slippery slope of gun control; higher taxes leading to economic recession; the destruction of marriage as we know it). They use the historical caricatures to enflame the base and they use the imagined outcomes to scare the independents. It's only when the current situation gets really bad -- and voters are willing to admit as much -- that the "reality-based community" has any hope of breaking through the appeal to the natural human fetish for the past or future -- a fetish also sometimes known, it should be noted, as "denial."


• All politics is local. Nationwide polls show George Bush, the Republican-controlled Congress, and Republicans in particular to be held in extremely low regard. However, when it comes to adding up individual races, changing control of even one of the two houses of Congress will be a very tight proposition.


• Robocalls. People have said for awhile that the last minute stuff is going to happen, could have a big impact, and it won't come out until after the election. For example, here's what ABC's "The Note" said on Oct. 17: "The Old Media is totally unqualified to track robo-calls, direct mail, radio ads, and church fliers (and campaigns know this)." Apparently, the Republicans are now running recorded calls in several states and districts that starts off saying it has "important information about [insert Democratic candidate's name here]." So it's starting as a smear campaign, but here's the interesting twist: It doesn't identify itself as being from the Republican Party or one of the "527" organizations until the end. And if you hang up, it just puts you back into the system and calls you back later, so that eventually the poor independent wants to vote for anyone except for the Democrat they think keeps calling them.

According to what news reports are out there, much of this national robocall/push polling operation is being run by an organization called "Common Sense 2006" -- a "527" organization. They're HQ'd in Cincinnati, headed up by a man named Nathan Estruth.

It's interesting to note that Karl Rove was apparently in Cincinnati the weekend of October 14-15 for private meetings (nothing shown on his public calendar). To meet with Nathan Estruth?

It's also interesting that ABC's The Note had their blurb on the under-the-radar advantage of robocalls, etc., just after Rove's trip to Ohio.

Labels: politics

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