(derekbaker)

Obama vs. McCain vs. Clinton

I don't regularly read the Washington Post, but my impression of David Broder is that he can be somewhat behind the curve at times. Even still, a recent column offers these words of warning for Democrats:

[T]he recent Washington Post-ABC News poll ... showed McCain in a statistical tie with either Democrat, leading Clinton by 49 percent to 46 percent, and trailing Obama by a similar margin.

In either scenario, women break for the Democratic candidate. McCain leads Clinton by 13 points among men, but only runs even with Obama. Party lines are sharp, and the battle for independents would be close. Currently, independents give McCain a 12-point lead over Clinton but favor Obama by 6 points over the Republican.

A fascinating dynamic appears when voters are asked to judge the candidates' strength and experience versus their new ideas and potential for bringing change. McCain and Clinton match closely in both dimensions, while McCain leads Obama by 20 points on strength and experience, but Obama has a 31-point edge on representing a new direction.

It could be, between now and November, that the surfeit of microphones and cameras around these days could showcase John McCain's well-documented temper: a "macaca moment," his own variation on Howard Dean's famous (for famously insane) roar. Or, since most of the news from here on out about the Republicans will actually be about John McCain, perhaps he'll have the same effect on the country as he's had on so many of his fellow professional Republicans who already know him and who, despite the less-familiar voters' preference, can't stand the guy.

But it's going to be a nail biter, nonetheless.

Labels: politics

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